Indian Options Fear & Greed Index
Participant snapshot
Tomorrow's expected move
VIX-implied 1σ daily move = VIX ÷ √252. This is the expected magnitude, not direction — and on 2021–2026 data VIX correlates positively (r shown above) with next-day |move|, so it's a genuine sizing input for straddle width and stops. The chart overlays implied daily σ (from VIX) against trailing 10-day realized σ; implied persistently above realized = variance risk premium (selling premium favoured).
Net Index Futures positioning vs spot
Smart-money divergence events
| Date | FII Fut | Client Fut | Spot | FII bias | Client bias |
|---|
Weekly heatmap — avg net Index Fut
Green = average net long · Red = net short · Brighter = larger magnitude
Monthly seasonality — avg net Index Fut by month
Index Options — net Calls vs Puts
Net options direction = net Calls − net Puts. Positive = bullish tilt; deeply negative (net-long puts) = bearish hedging. FIIs' put build-up often precedes weakness.
FII − DII tug-of-war · net Index Fut
FII net minus DII net Index-Futures. Positive = FIIs more net-long than DIIs; large swings across zero often mark turning points. NIFTY overlaid (right axis).
Positioning crowding — % long (Index Fut)
Share of each participant's Index-Fut book that is long. ≥75% = crowded long, ≤25% = crowded short — crowding can precede mean reversion.
Single-Stock Futures — net positioning
Net single-stock-futures — stock-specific conviction, separate from index hedging. Large DII shorts here are typically hedges against cash holdings.
Positioning extremes — 1-year percentile
Where today's net Index-Fut sits in each participant's trailing-1yr range. ≥90th pct = extreme long, ≤10th = extreme short (contrarian watch).
Divergence → forward NIFTY returns
For every historical day when FII and Client were on opposite sides of Index Futures, this is how NIFTY moved over the next 1, 3, 5, 10 trading days. Higher hit-rate on the FII-bear cluster suggests betting WITH the FIIs.