India VIX — Live
Real-time NSE India VIX with expected-move bands and volatility regime interpretation.
What is India VIX?
India VIX is the NSE's official volatility index — the market's forecast of NIFTY's expected annualised volatility over the next 30 days, extracted from live NIFTY options. It's mechanically similar to the US VIX but derived from Indian option chain data. A VIX reading of 16 means the market expects NIFTY to move ±16% over the next year on an annualised basis. Divide by √252 for the 1-day expected 1σ move, or √52 for weekly.
How to read the VIX bands
The hero card computes 1σ 1-day and 1σ 1-week bands using the current VIX. For example, VIX at 12.0 gives a 1-day ±0.75% move and a 1-week ±1.67% move. NIFTY closes within its 1σ band on ~68% of days by construction (that's what 1σ means). Sustained VIX above 18 signals elevated stress; below 11 signals complacency. The change and change% columns show today's VIX move — a big VIX pop with flat NIFTY is a warning sign; a big VIX drop with rising NIFTY is confirmation of a healthy rally.
VIX predicts MAGNITUDE, not direction
Our 5-year study of India VIX vs next-day NIFTY movement (published in the [Sentiment Lab](/sentiment)) found VIX correlates positively (r ≈ +0.30) with the ABSOLUTE size of the next-day move, but has near-zero correlation with the SIGN. Practical read: high VIX = wider expected move (size straddles/strangles accordingly, widen stops). Low VIX = tighter range likely (favour short-vol strategies like iron condors).
Variance risk premium
The gap between implied volatility (what options traders expect — VIX) and realized volatility (what actually happens) is the variance risk premium. On most days VIX > 10-day realized vol by 2-3 points — this is the premium option WRITERS collect for taking on tail risk. When VIX collapses BELOW realized (rare, usually mid-crash), variance risk premium inverts and short-vol strategies get hurt badly. The Sentiment Lab shows a live implied-vs-realized chart.
Trading implications
VIX rising into a big news event (RBI, budget, US Fed): buy protection (long puts or put spreads). VIX falling after news: sell premium (iron condors, credit spreads). VIX at multi-month low with rising NIFTY: dangerous complacency — expect a mean-reversion vol spike. VIX at multi-month high: statistical mean reversion favours short-vol setups on the next 5-10 sessions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's a normal India VIX range?
9-18 in a calm market. 18-25 in stress. 25+ in crisis (COVID March 2020 hit 86).
How is VIX calculated?
From the near-month and next-month NIFTY option chains using the CBOE-style variance-swap formula. NSE publishes the methodology PDF.
Does India VIX predict crashes?
No. VIX RISES during crashes (contemporaneous), it doesn't predict them. What it does predict is the MAGNITUDE of near-term moves.
How often does VIX update?
Real-time from NSE (2-3 sec latency). Our snapshot is 60-sec cached.
What's the difference between VIX and IV?
IV is per-option (each strike has one). VIX aggregates the whole chain into a single 30-day expected-vol number.
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